Systems dynamic models for selected agricultural subsectors in Southern Mindanao region, Philippines

Author: Sophremiano Antipolo

AIT Library Call Number: AIT Thesis no. HS-88-23

Year: 1988

Academic Program: Human Settlement (HS)

Type: Thesis (M.Sc.) – Asian Institute of Technology, 1981

Examination Committee: Hideki Kaji (Chairperson); Shlomo Angel, Mario T. Tabucanon (Examination Committee Members)

Abstract: The models developed in this research cover three subsectors of agriculture: crops, livestock and poultry, and fisheries. Each subsector is modelled in detail covering all commodities with respect to its potential and actual production, supply-demand interaction, and export-import determination. Using system semantics. the models have been formulated in a way that they allow consideration of important feedback loops, the interaction of variables, and evaluation of agricultural development policies. The dynamics of the modelled agricultural subsectors over a thirty-year period is revealed by simulating the models and observing the behavior of selected variables. The reference run yields basic prediction, forming the bases for comparison with the policy run. The results of the reference simulation indicate that food crop productivity will continue to increase at an average annual growth rate of 0.08 percent. On the other hand, aggregate growth rate for gross crop production is expected at 3.1 percent per annum. Sizeable surpluses are anticipated in rice, long with soybeans and sorghum. Shortages, however, will be likely in root crops, tubers , and bulbs, and vegetable crops. Higher productivity level and gross production growth rates are expected from commercial crops. These are projected at 0.9 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. Favorable production balances are seen in all commercial crops, except for sugarcane which indicates a reverse trend during the second half of the simulation time from. The scenario for livestock and fisheries subsectors appears bright except for beef production which is predicted to register unfavorable production balance during the second half of the planning horizon. To demonstrate that the models can serve as a laboratory for agricultural systems analysis and planning, some agricultural development schemes have been examined. Tests are performed for each scheme or combination of schemes to determine potential policy mix. An analysis tool called ‘Deviation Matrix’ has been devis

Scholarship Donor(s): The Agricultural Development Council.

Note: A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science

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